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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
9/9/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 3Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa35%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Ramat Gan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.35
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 129 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.58
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.30

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.55
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.12

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
61%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Ramat Gan
75%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
65%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
48%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.30 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
35%
level
25%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
39%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3–0 Hapoel Ramat Gan

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 3-0 in Liga Leumit on September 9, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.