Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–0 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Hapoel Ramat Gan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1/2/2026

Liga Leumit · Round 17National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan42%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.29

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.49

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.29

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 74 away

1.52

creates per match

1.46

1.11

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.52

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.46

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.11

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw

67%

Hapoel Ramat Gan or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

75%

Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

20%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

44%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

19%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

72%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

37%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

56%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

42%

level

25%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

33%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff