Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2–0 Hapoel Afula

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Afula

5/9/2025

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 6Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa45%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Afula31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Afula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.29

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.60

Hapoel Afula

1.29

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 129 away

1.58

creates per match

1.02

1.55

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.58

Hapoel Afula

1.02

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.55

Hapoel Afula

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Afula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw

69%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Afula

75%

Draw or Hapoel Afula

55%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

80%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

47%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

22%

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

59%

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

45%

level

25%

Hapoel Afula scores more

31%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff