Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1/17/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 19Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hapoel Afula36%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Afula
1.33
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 74 away

creates per match

Hapoel Afula
1.21
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Hapoel Afula
1.27
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw
62%
Hapoel Afula or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
64%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
16%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
49%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more
36%
level
26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
38%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Afula 2–2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Hapoel Afula and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa drew 2-2 in Liga Leumit on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.