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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — League #496 2026

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
0 – 2
Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
T. Ayala 90'
O. Raly 77'
4/20/2021League #496League #496 · Promotion Round - South - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa49%
×Draw26%
Agudat Sport Ashdod25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.53
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.02

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.67
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.27

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
0.78
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.40

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
75%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Agudat Sport Ashdod
74%
Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod
51%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
25%
Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
78%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
45%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
20%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
64%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
27%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
66%
Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.67 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.27 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
49%
level
26%
Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
25%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
O. Raly
90'
T. Ayala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Agudat Sport Ashdod

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2-0 in League #496 on April 20, 2021.

Goals: O. Raly (77'), T. Ayala (90').