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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — League #496 2026

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
FT
2 – 1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
O. Edelshtein 90+6'
Y. Assayag 74'
J. Suburb 70'
4/30/2021League #496League #496 · Promotion Round - South - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod39%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.27
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.23
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.50

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.30

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
66%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
73%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
61%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
72%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
36%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
69%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
33%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
53%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.23 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.50 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
39%
level
27%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
34%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
J. Suburb
74'
Y. Assayag
90+6'
O. Edelshtein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Agudat Sport Ashdod 2–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2-1 in League #496 on April 30, 2021.

Goals: J. Suburb (70'), Y. Assayag (74'), O. Edelshtein (90+6').