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Maccabi K. Ata Bialik vs Ironi Nesher — League #496 2026

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
CANC
10:00
Ironi Nesher
Ironi Nesher
4/16/2025League #496League #496 · North - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik45%
×Draw25%
Ironi Nesher30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.60
Ironi Nesher
1.26

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.33
Ironi Nesher
0.86

allows per match

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.67
Ironi Nesher
1.86

finishing

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik+0.00on par
Ironi Nesher+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik ↓

Ironi Nesher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik or draw
70%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik or Ironi Nesher
75%
Draw or Ironi Nesher
55%

Winning margin

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik wins by 2+
23%
Ironi Nesher wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1+ goals
80%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 2+ goals
47%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 3+ goals
22%
Ironi Nesher 1+ goals
72%
Ironi Nesher 2+ goals
36%
Ironi Nesher 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (draw refunded)
60%
Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Ironi Nesher away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik attack 1.33 + Ironi Nesher defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ironi Nesher attack 0.86 + Maccabi K. Ata Bialik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik scores more
45%
level
25%
Ironi Nesher scores more
30%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi K. Ata Bialik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik host Ironi Nesher

April 16, 2025: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik take on Ironi Nesher in League #496. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.