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Ironi Nesher vs Maccabi K. Ata Bialik — League #496 2026

Ironi Nesher
Ironi Nesher
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
4/9/2024League #496League #496 · North - 26Nesher Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Nesher28%
×Draw23%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Nesher
1.29
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.77

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ironi Nesher
1.25
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.67

allows per match

Ironi Nesher
1.88
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.33

finishing

Ironi Nesher+0.00on par
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Nesher ↓

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ironi Nesher or draw
51%
Ironi Nesher or Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
77%
Draw or Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
72%

Winning margin

Ironi Nesher wins by 2+
12%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ironi Nesher 1+ goals
72%
Ironi Nesher 2+ goals
37%
Ironi Nesher 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 2+ goals
53%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)
37%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Nesher at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Nesher attack 1.25 + Maccabi K. Ata Bialik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik attack 1.67 + Ironi Nesher defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ironi Nesher scores more
28%
level
23%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik scores more
49%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maccabi K. Ata Bialik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Nesher vs Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik beat Ironi Nesher 3-1 in League #496 on April 9, 2024.

The match was played at Nesher Municipal Stadium in Nesher.