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Maccabi Ironi Tamra vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek — League #496 2026

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
PST
00:00
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
4/17/2020League #496League #496 · North - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra41%
×Draw32%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.06
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
0.79

Maccabi Ironi Tamra creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.11
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
0.80

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
0.78
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
1.00

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Tamra ↓

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Tamra or draw
73%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra or Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
68%
Draw or Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
59%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+
17%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals
65%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals
29%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals
9%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1+ goals
55%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2+ goals
19%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)
61%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.11 + Hapoel Migdal HaEmek defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek attack 0.80 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more
41%
level
32%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek scores more
27%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Tamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maccabi Ironi Tamra face Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (League #496)

League #496 returns with Maccabi Ironi Tamra hosting Hapoel Migdal HaEmek. Match starts April 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.