Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Maccabi Ironi Tamra — League #496 2026

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1/13/2023League #496League #496 · North - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek36%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
1.24
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
1.67
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.36

allows per match

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
1.11
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
0.82

finishing

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek+0.00on par
Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek ↓

Maccabi Ironi Tamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek or draw
64%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek or Maccabi Ironi Tamra
73%
Draw or Maccabi Ironi Tamra
64%

Winning margin

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek wins by 2+
16%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2+ goals
35%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3+ goals
13%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals
35%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (draw refunded)
50%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek attack 1.67 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.24

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.36 + Hapoel Migdal HaEmek defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek scores more
36%
level
27%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more
36%

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hapoel Migdal HaEmek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Maccabi Ironi Tamra

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek and Maccabi Ironi Tamra drew 0-0 in League #496 on January 13, 2023.