Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2–0 Maccabi Ironi Tamra

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

FT

2 – 0

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

11/23/2020

State Cup · 2nd RoundNew Tiberias Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek43%

×Draw27%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Migdal HaEmekExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Ironi Tamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

1.36

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

1.10

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

0.40

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

1.00

allows per match

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

1.20

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek+0.00on par

Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek ↓

Maccabi Ironi Tamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek or draw

70%

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek or Maccabi Ironi Tamra

73%

Draw or Maccabi Ironi Tamra

57%

Winning margin

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek wins by 2+

20%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3+ goals

16%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals

67%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals

30%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (draw refunded)

59%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek attack 0.40 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.00 + Hapoel Migdal HaEmek defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek scores more

43%

level

27%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more

30%

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Migdal HaEmek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff