Maccabi Herzliya 1–0 Kafr Qasim: Result & Stats

Maccabi Herzliya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kafr Qasim

11/1/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 12Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya36%

×Draw27%

Kafr Qasim36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HerzliyaExpected goals in this matchKafr Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Maccabi Herzliya

1.25

Kafr Qasim

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 128 away

1.33

creates per match

1.06

1.45

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.33

Kafr Qasim

1.06

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.45

Kafr Qasim

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Kafr Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw

64%

Maccabi Herzliya or Kafr Qasim

73%

Draw or Kafr Qasim

64%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

16%

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

71%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

13%

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

71%

Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

36%

Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

50%

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

36%

level

27%

Kafr Qasim scores more

36%

Maccabi Herzliya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff