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Kafr Qasim vs Maccabi Herzliya — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
3/24/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 25Bat Yam Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kafr Qasim42%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Herzliya32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.42
Maccabi Herzliya
1.21

Kafr Qasim creates 17% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 56 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Maccabi Herzliya
1.27

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Maccabi Herzliya
1.59

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
68%
Kafr Qasim or Maccabi Herzliya
74%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
58%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
76%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
41%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
17%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
70%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
34%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
57%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
42%
level
26%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
32%

Kafr Qasim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kafr Qasim vs Maccabi Herzliya

Maccabi Herzliya beat Kafr Qasim 2-0 in Liga Leumit on March 24, 2026.

The match was played at Bat Yam Municipal Stadium in Bat Yam.