Maccabi Herzliya 2–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Maccabi Herzliya

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

10/13/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 8Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya38%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HerzliyaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Nazareth Illit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.34

Maccabi Herzliya

1.38

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 113 away

1.33

creates per match

1.23

1.45

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.33

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.23

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.45

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw

64%

Maccabi Herzliya or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

74%

Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

62%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

18%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

75%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

40%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

16%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

51%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

38%

level

26%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

36%

Maccabi Herzliya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff