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Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Maccabi Herzliya — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
1/9/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 18Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit44%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Herzliya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.49
Maccabi Herzliya
1.21

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.39
Maccabi Herzliya
1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.15
Maccabi Herzliya
1.59

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
69%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Maccabi Herzliya
74%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
21%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
77%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
44%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
19%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
70%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
34%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
59%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.49

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
44%
level
26%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
31%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2–1 Maccabi Herzliya

Hapoel Nazareth Illit beat Maccabi Herzliya 2-1 in Liga Leumit on January 9, 2026.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.