Maccabi Herzliya 0–1 Bnei Yehuda: Result & Stats

Maccabi Herzliya

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bnei Yehuda

S. Dror 78' (pen)

4/17/2026

Liga Leumit · Round 30Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya41%

×Draw26%

Bnei Yehuda33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HerzliyaExpected goals in this matchBnei Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Maccabi Herzliya

1.45

Bnei Yehuda

1.27

Maccabi Herzliya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.52

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.52

Bnei Yehuda

1.26

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.29

Bnei Yehuda

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Bnei Yehuda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw

67%

Maccabi Herzliya or Bnei Yehuda

74%

Draw or Bnei Yehuda

59%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

20%

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

77%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

42%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

18%

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

72%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

36%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

56%

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.52 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.26 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

41%

level

26%

Bnei Yehuda scores more

33%

Maccabi Herzliya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'

S. DrorPenalty

Maccabi

Bnei

Manager: E. Braown

Manager: Eliyahu Levi