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Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Herzliya — Liga Leumit 2025

Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
B. Hadadi 72'
O. Barzilay 78'
5/25/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Group - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bnei Yehuda35%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Herzliya38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Yehuda
1.21
Maccabi Herzliya
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.32
Maccabi Herzliya
1.48

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.05
Maccabi Herzliya
1.10

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw
62%
Bnei Yehuda or Maccabi Herzliya
73%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
65%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
15%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
70%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
34%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
12%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
72%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
48%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.48 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more
35%
level
27%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
38%

Maccabi Herzliya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
O. HassanMissed penalty
72'
B. Hadadi
78'
O. Barzilay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bnei Yehuda 1 – 1 Maccabi Herzliya

Bnei Yehuda and Maccabi Herzliya drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on May 25, 2026.

Goals: B. Hadadi (72'), O. Barzilay (78').