Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maccabi Herzliya vs Bnei Yehuda — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
2/9/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 21Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya37%
×Draw26%
Bnei Yehuda38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
1.36
Bnei Yehuda
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 94 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.33
Bnei Yehuda
1.32

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.45
Bnei Yehuda
1.39

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Bnei Yehuda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
62%
Maccabi Herzliya or Bnei Yehuda
74%
Draw or Bnei Yehuda
63%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
17%
Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
16%
Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
75%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
40%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
49%
Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
37%
level
26%
Bnei Yehuda scores more
38%

Bnei Yehuda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Herzliya 3–1 Bnei Yehuda

Maccabi Herzliya beat Bnei Yehuda 3-1 in Liga Leumit on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.