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Maccabi Herzliya vs Bnei Eilat — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
0 – 2
Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
8/30/2021State CupState Cup · Liga Alef - 5th RoundMunicipal Stadium Herzliya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya73%
×Draw17%
Bnei Eilat11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
2.40
Bnei Eilat
0.80

Maccabi Herzliya creates 200% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.29
Bnei Eilat
0.75

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
0.86
Bnei Eilat
3.50

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Bnei Eilat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Bnei Eilat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
89%
Maccabi Herzliya or Bnei Eilat
83%
Draw or Bnei Eilat
27%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
50%
Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
91%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
69%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
42%
Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
55%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
19%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
87%
Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Bnei Eilat away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.29 + Bnei Eilat defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Bnei Eilat attack 0.75 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
73%
level
17%
Bnei Eilat scores more
11%

Maccabi Herzliya at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Herzliya 0–2 Bnei Eilat

Bnei Eilat beat Maccabi Herzliya 2-0 in State Cup on August 30, 2021.

The match was played at Municipal Stadium Herzliya in Herzliya.