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Bnei Eilat vs Maccabi Herzliya — State Cup 2019

Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
FT
3 – 2
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
9/12/2022State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)The North Beach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bnei Eilat66%
×Draw19%
Maccabi Herzliya15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Eilat
2.17
Maccabi Herzliya
0.91

Bnei Eilat creates 138% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bnei Eilat
2.00
Maccabi Herzliya
0.67

allows per match

Bnei Eilat
1.14
Maccabi Herzliya
2.33

finishing

Bnei Eilat+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Eilat ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bnei Eilat or draw
85%
Bnei Eilat or Maccabi Herzliya
81%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
34%

Winning margin

Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
42%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
89%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
64%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
36%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
60%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
23%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
82%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Eilat at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Eilat attack 2.00 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Maccabi Herzliya attack 0.67 + Bnei Eilat defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bnei Eilat scores more
66%
level
19%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
15%

Bnei Eilat at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bnei Eilat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Eilat vs Maccabi Herzliya

Bnei Eilat beat Maccabi Herzliya 3-2 in State Cup on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at The North Beach in Eilat.