Maccabi Haifa 2–0 Maccabi Bnei Raina

Maccabi Haifa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1/2/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 16Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Maccabi Haifa57%

×Draw23%

Maccabi Bnei Raina20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HaifaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Bnei Raina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.97

Maccabi Haifa

1.81

Maccabi Bnei Raina

0.97

Maccabi Haifa creates 87% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 68 away

2.20

creates per match

1.01

0.92

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa

2.20

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.01

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa

0.92

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw

80%

Maccabi Haifa or Maccabi Bnei Raina

77%

Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina

43%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+

33%

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals

84%

Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals

54%

Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals

27%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

62%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

25%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)

74%

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.81

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more

57%

level

23%

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

20%

Maccabi Haifa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff