Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Maccabi Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
5/4/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Championship Round - 6Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina21%
×Draw23%
Maccabi Haifa55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.00
Maccabi Haifa
1.77

Maccabi Haifa creates 77% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 127 away

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.94
Maccabi Haifa
1.83

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.70
Maccabi Haifa
1.06

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw
45%
Maccabi Bnei Raina or Maccabi Haifa
77%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
79%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
8%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
63%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
26%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
8%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
53%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
28%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.70 · 67 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 0.94 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.83 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
21%
level
23%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
55%

Maccabi Haifa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–5 Maccabi Haifa

Maccabi Haifa beat Maccabi Bnei Raina 5-1 in Ligat Ha'al on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.