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Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Katamon — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
11/1/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 9Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Maccabi Haifa57%
×Draw23%
Hapoel Katamon20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Haifa
1.76
Hapoel Katamon
0.94

Maccabi Haifa creates 87% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 84 away

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa
2.20
Hapoel Katamon
0.95

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa
0.92
Hapoel Katamon
1.31

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par
Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Hapoel Katamon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw
80%
Maccabi Haifa or Hapoel Katamon
77%
Draw or Hapoel Katamon
43%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
32%
Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
52%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
26%
Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
61%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
24%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
74%
Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.76

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more
57%
level
23%
Hapoel Katamon scores more
20%

Maccabi Haifa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Katamon

Maccabi Haifa and Hapoel Katamon drew 2-2 in Ligat Ha'al on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.