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Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
11/8/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 10Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon28%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Haifa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.09
Maccabi Haifa
1.49

Maccabi Haifa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 127 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Maccabi Haifa
1.83

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.15
Maccabi Haifa
1.06

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
54%
Hapoel Katamon or Maccabi Haifa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
72%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
11%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
10%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
77%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
44%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
37%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.83 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
28%
level
26%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
46%

Maccabi Haifa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa

Hapoel Katamon and Maccabi Haifa drew 0-0 in Ligat Ha'al on November 8, 2024.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.