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Maccabi Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
10/5/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 6Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Maccabi Haifa58%
×Draw23%
Bnei Sakhnin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Haifa
1.79
Bnei Sakhnin
0.92

Maccabi Haifa creates 95% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 102 away

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa
2.20
Bnei Sakhnin
0.91

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa
0.92
Bnei Sakhnin
1.37

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par
Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw
81%
Maccabi Haifa or Bnei Sakhnin
77%
Draw or Bnei Sakhnin
42%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
33%
Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
53%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
26%
Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
60%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
23%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
75%
Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more
58%
level
23%
Bnei Sakhnin scores more
19%

Maccabi Haifa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin

Maccabi Haifa beat Bnei Sakhnin 3-0 in Ligat Ha'al on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.