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Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
1/18/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 19Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin25%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Haifa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Maccabi Haifa
1.54

Maccabi Haifa creates 54% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 127 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Maccabi Haifa
1.83

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Maccabi Haifa
1.06

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
50%
Bnei Sakhnin or Maccabi Haifa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
75%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
9%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
63%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
26%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
8%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
79%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
45%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
33%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.83 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
25%
level
26%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
50%

Maccabi Haifa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Bnei Sakhnin 1–1 Maccabi Haifa

Bnei Sakhnin and Maccabi Haifa drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.