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Maccabi Ashdod vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — League #496 2026

Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
N. Mahpud 83'
Y. Negrin 62'
Y. David 52'
A. Masri 39', 31'
M. Khoury 68' (pen)
M. Asefa 49'
11/5/2024League #496League #496 · South - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Maccabi Ashdod43%
×Draw24%
Agudat Sport Ashdod32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ashdod
1.61
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.36

Maccabi Ashdod creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ashdod
1.82
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.27

allows per match

Maccabi Ashdod
1.45
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.40

finishing

Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par
Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ashdod ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi Ashdod or draw
68%
Maccabi Ashdod or Agudat Sport Ashdod
76%
Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod
57%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
22%
Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
80%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
48%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
22%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
74%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
39%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
57%
Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ashdod at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ashdod attack 1.82 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.27 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maccabi Ashdod scores more
43%
level
24%
Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
32%

Maccabi Ashdod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maccabi Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
A. Masri
39'
A. Masri
49'
M. Asefa
52'
Y. David
62'
Y. Negrin
68'
M. KhouryPenalty
83'
N. Mahpud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Ashdod 5–2 Agudat Sport Ashdod

Maccabi Ashdod beat Agudat Sport Ashdod 5-2 in League #496 on November 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Masri (31', 39'), M. Asefa (49'), Y. David (52'), Y. Negrin (62'), M. Khoury (68' pen), N. Mahpud (83').