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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
9/1/2023State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod37%
×Draw24%
Maccabi Ashdod39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.50
Maccabi Ashdod
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.50
Maccabi Ashdod
2.13

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.00
Maccabi Ashdod
1.50

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
61%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Maccabi Ashdod
76%
Draw or Maccabi Ashdod
63%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
78%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
44%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
19%
Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
79%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
46%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
48%
Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Maccabi Ashdod away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.50 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Maccabi Ashdod attack 2.13 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
37%
level
24%
Maccabi Ashdod scores more
39%

Maccabi Ashdod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Ashdod

Agudat Sport Ashdod and Maccabi Ashdod drew 1-1 in State Cup on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.