Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Macarthur vs Dynamic Herb Cebu — AFC Cup 2018

Macarthur
Macarthur
FT
8 – 2
HT: 6 – 0
Dynamic Herb Cebu
Dynamic Herb Cebu
10/5/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Campbelltown Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Macarthur85%
×Draw9%
Dynamic Herb Cebu5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur
3.48
Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.79

Macarthur creates 341% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Macarthur
3.63
Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.83

allows per match

Macarthur
0.75
Dynamic Herb Cebu
3.33

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par
Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Dynamic Herb Cebu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw
95%
Macarthur or Dynamic Herb Cebu
91%
Draw or Dynamic Herb Cebu
15%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+
69%
Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals
97%
Macarthur 2+ goals
85%
Macarthur 3+ goals
65%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals
55%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals
19%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)
94%
Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 3.63 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.48

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 0.83 + Macarthur defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Macarthur scores more
85%
level
9%
Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more
5%

Macarthur at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macarthur vs Dynamic Herb Cebu

Macarthur beat Dynamic Herb Cebu 8-2 in AFC Cup on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campbelltown Sports Stadium in Sydney.