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Dynamic Herb Cebu vs Macarthur — AFC Cup 2018

Dynamic Herb Cebu
Dynamic Herb Cebu
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Macarthur
Macarthur
12/14/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu10%
×Draw14%
Macarthur76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.90
Macarthur
2.80

Macarthur creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.50
Macarthur
1.43

allows per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu
4.17
Macarthur
1.29

finishing

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamic Herb Cebu ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dynamic Herb Cebu or draw
24%
Dynamic Herb Cebu or Macarthur
86%
Draw or Macarthur
90%

Winning margin

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+
3%
Macarthur wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals
59%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals
23%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals
6%
Macarthur 1+ goals
94%
Macarthur 2+ goals
76%
Macarthur 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)
11%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamic Herb Cebu at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 0.50 + Macarthur defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Macarthur attack 1.43 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more
10%
level
14%
Macarthur scores more
76%

Macarthur at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamic Herb Cebu vs Macarthur

Macarthur beat Dynamic Herb Cebu 3-0 in AFC Cup on December 14, 2023.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.