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Macarthur Rams vs Bulls Academy — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
3/1/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Ron Dine Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Macarthur Rams33%
×Draw24%
Bulls Academy42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur Rams
1.38
Bulls Academy
1.58

Bulls Academy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 43 away

creates per match

Macarthur Rams
1.26
Bulls Academy
1.70

allows per match

Macarthur Rams
1.47
Bulls Academy
1.49

finishing

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par
Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur Rams ↓

Bulls Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Macarthur Rams or draw
58%
Macarthur Rams or Bulls Academy
76%
Draw or Bulls Academy
67%

Winning margin

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+
15%
Bulls Academy wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals
75%
Macarthur Rams 2+ goals
40%
Macarthur Rams 3+ goals
16%
Bulls Academy 1+ goals
79%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
47%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)
44%
Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur Rams at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur Rams attack 1.26 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Macarthur Rams scores more
33%
level
24%
Bulls Academy scores more
42%

Bulls Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Macarthur Rams 2–2 Bulls Academy

Macarthur Rams and Bulls Academy drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ron Dine Reserve in Camden South.