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Bulls Academy vs Macarthur Rams — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
1 – 0
Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams
2/17/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 1Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bulls Academy57%
×Draw21%
Macarthur Rams22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
2.04
Macarthur Rams
1.20

Bulls Academy creates 70% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 56 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Macarthur Rams
0.95

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Macarthur Rams
1.84

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Macarthur Rams+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Macarthur Rams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
78%
Bulls Academy or Macarthur Rams
79%
Draw or Macarthur Rams
43%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
34%
Macarthur Rams wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
87%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
60%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
33%
Macarthur Rams 1+ goals
70%
Macarthur Rams 2+ goals
34%
Macarthur Rams 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
72%
Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Macarthur Rams away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.04

Macarthur Rams attack 0.95 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
57%
level
21%
Macarthur Rams scores more
22%

Bulls Academy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulls Academy vs Macarthur Rams

Bulls Academy beat Macarthur Rams 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.