Macara 0–1 Independiente del Valle: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

R. López 90'

5/26/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Macara25%

×Draw26%

Independiente del Valle49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.48

Macara

0.97

Independiente del Valle

1.48

Independiente del Valle creates 53% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.09

creates per match

2.03

0.94

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Macara

1.09

Independiente del Valle

2.03

allows per match

Macara

0.94

Independiente del Valle

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Macara or draw

51%

Macara or Independiente del Valle

74%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

75%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

9%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

62%

Macara 2+ goals

25%

Macara 3+ goals

7%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

77%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

43%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

34%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.09 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Independiente del Valle attack 2.03 + Macara defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Macara scores more

25%

level

26%

Independiente del Valle scores more

49%

Independiente del Valle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Correa

Macara · G

8.7

Match Events

32'

R. Lora

56'

L. Zarate

61'

J. Lerma← Romario Ibarra

61'

Y. Medina← B. Caicedo

63'

M. Viera← F. Mina

63'

L. Álvarez← M. Tello

70'

L. Alvarez

72'

J. Alcívar← C. Zabala

72'

73'

73'

83'

88'

J. Valdez← J. Escobar

90+5'

J. Jimenez

90'

R. López↳ Rrenato Ibarra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MacaraIndependiente

Overview

27%Possession73%

4Total Shots21

0Corners10

8Fouls6

Shots

4Total Shots21

1On Target10

3Off Target7

0Blocked4

2Inside Box14

2Outside Box7

Passing

27%Possession73%

207Total Passes567

147Accurate Passes505

71%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0