Independiente del Valle 1–1 Macara: Result & Stats

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Macara

3/16/2025

Liga Pro · Round 5Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Independiente del Valle46%

×Draw27%

Macara27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

Independiente del Valle

1.41

Macara

1.00

Independiente del Valle creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.72

creates per match

1.26

0.75

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.72

Macara

1.26

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.75

Macara

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

73%

Independiente del Valle or Macara

73%

Draw or Macara

54%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

22%

Macara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

76%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

41%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

17%

Macara 1+ goals

63%

Macara 2+ goals

26%

Macara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

63%

Macara (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Macara away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.72 + Macara defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Macara attack 1.26 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

46%

level

27%

Macara scores more

27%

Independiente del Valle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff