Macara 1–1 Independiente del Valle: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

Janner Corozo 68'

Efrén Mera 38'

4/21/2019

Liga Pro · Round 10Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara35%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Macara

1.21

Independiente del Valle

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 133 away

1.24

creates per match

1.56

1.03

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Macara

1.24

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

Macara

1.03

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Macara or draw

62%

Macara or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

65%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

15%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

70%

Macara 2+ goals

34%

Macara 3+ goals

12%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

72%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

37%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

47%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Macara scores more

35%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

38%

Independiente del Valle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Mario Rizotto

11'

Claudio Bieler

13'

Galo CorozoMissed penalty

15'

Angelo Preciado

26'

Luis Segovia

38'

Efrén Mera↳ Washington Corozo

46'

Carlos Feraud← Mario Rizotto

54'

Angelo Preciado

54'

Angelo Preciado

57'

Anthony Landazuri← Efrén Mera

58'

Jorge Pinos

64'

Claudio Bieler

64'

Claudio Bieler

66'

Flavio Ciampichetti← Armando Gomez

66'

Janner Corozo← Carlos Arboleda

68'

Janner Corozo↳ Carlos Feraud

68'

Alejandro Cabeza← Washington Corozo

69'

Cristian Pellerano

78'

Jhon Sánchez← Jhon Sánchez

87'

Flavio Ciampichetti

90'

Luis Fernando Leon

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MacaraIndependiente

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots7

6Corners3

21Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots7

3On Target4

3Off Target3

Passing

50%Possession50%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls14

2Yellow Cards6

–Red Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Macara vs Independiente del Valle

Macara and Independiente del Valle drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on April 21, 2019.

Goals: Efrén Mera (38'), Janner Corozo (68').

Macara controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Macara vs Independiente del Valle