Macara 2–1 Guabirá: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Guabirá

Carlos Arboleda 35'

Ronald Champang 29'

Gualberto Mojica Olmos 27'

2/12/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Macara67%

×Draw19%

Guabirá14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchGuabirá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.92

Macara

2.25

Guabirá

0.92

Macara creates 145% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

1.33

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Macara

1.67

Guabirá

0.50

allows per match

Macara

1.33

Guabirá

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Guabirá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Macara or draw

86%

Macara or Guabirá

81%

Draw or Guabirá

33%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

44%

Guabirá wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

89%

Macara 2+ goals

65%

Macara 3+ goals

39%

Guabirá 1+ goals

60%

Guabirá 2+ goals

23%

Guabirá 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

83%

Guabirá (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.67 + Guabirá defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Guabirá attack 0.50 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Macara scores more

67%

level

19%

Guabirá scores more

14%

Macara at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Jhonatan De la Cruz

Macara · M

7.6

Match Events

27'

Gualberto Mojica Olmos

29'

Ronald Champang↳ Galo Corozo

35'

Carlos Arboleda↳ Leonel Quinonez

45'

Gualberto Mojica Olmos

46'

Flavio Ciampichetti← Michael Estrada

54'

Diego Hoyos

67'

Javier Lezcano← Maximiliano Velasco

67'

Juan Montenegro← Jorge Eduardo Lovera

71'

Wagner Valencia← Carlos Arboleda

79'

Jhonathan Lucas← Ronald Champang

83'

Galo Corozo

90'

Juan Mercado← Gualberto Mojica Olmos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MacaraGuabirá

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots6

9Corners0

13Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots6

5On Target2

11Off Target3

4Blocked1

10Inside Box0

10Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

330Total Passes293

256Accurate Passes189

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

6Offsides0

Match Recap: Macara vs Guabirá

Macara beat Guabirá 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on February 12, 2019.

Goals: Gualberto Mojica Olmos (27'), Ronald Champang (29'), Carlos Arboleda (35').

Macara controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.

Macara vs Guabirá — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Macara vs Guabirá