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Guabirá vs Macara — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Macara
Macara
Michael Estrada 78', 72', 70'
3/1/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guabirá18%
×Draw26%
Macara56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
0.73
Macara
1.52

Macara creates 108% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.14
Macara
1.17

allows per match

Guabirá
1.86
Macara
0.33

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
44%
Guabirá or Macara
74%
Draw or Macara
82%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
5%
Macara wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
52%
Guabirá 2+ goals
17%
Guabirá 3+ goals
4%
Macara 1+ goals
78%
Macara 2+ goals
45%
Macara 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
24%
Macara (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.14 + Macara defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.73

Macara attack 1.17 + Guabirá defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Guabirá scores more
18%
level
26%
Macara scores more
56%

Macara at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Michael EstradaMacaraMacara · F
9.5

Match Events

17'
Carlos Arboleda
39'
Alejandro Manchot
55'
Luis Cardenas
57'
Jorge Eduardo Lovera
59'
Maximiliano Velasco
59'
Juan Mercado← Jorge Eduardo Lovera
63'
Juan Montenegro← Miguel Ángel Ríos
66'
Javier Burrai
70'
Michael Estrada↳ Jhonatan De la Cruz
72'
Michael Estrada
75'
Javier Lezcano← Gustavo Peredo
78'
Michael Estrada↳ Carlos Arboleda
83'
Janner Corozo← Carlos Arboleda
84'
Flavio Ciampichetti← Michael Estrada
87'
Jean Carlos Estacio← Ronald Champang

Possession

49%Guabirá

Shots

12Guabirá

Pass accuracy

46%Guabirá

Statistics

GuabiráMacara
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots17
4Corners6
13Fouls21
Shots
12Total Shots17
2On Target5
4Off Target8
6Blocked4
6Inside Box7
6Outside Box10
Passing
49%Possession51%
305Total Passes311
190Accurate Passes230
62%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls21
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Guabirá 0–3 Macara

Macara beat Guabirá 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 1, 2019.

Goals: Michael Estrada (70', 72', 78').

Macara controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.