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Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Macara
Macara
Preview
19:00
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
7/22/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 21Estadio Bellavista
Big match
47%
Macara
model favours
47%27%26%

88% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara47%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.37
Deportivo Cuenca
0.95

Macara creates 44% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 130 away

creates per match

Macara
1.24
Deportivo Cuenca
0.86

allows per match

Macara
1.03
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Macara or draw
74%
Macara or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
53%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
75%
Macara 2+ goals
40%
Macara 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
64%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.86 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Macara scores more
47%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
26%

Macara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara have won 4 in a row
  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • Deportivo Cuenca score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches
  • Style contrast — Macara play Defensively solid, Deportivo Cuenca Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Macara
Defensively solid
Deportivo Cuenca
Attack-heavy
49%Possession51%
75%Pass accuracy78%
12.7Shots13.3
1.29xGBiggest gap1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MacaraDeportivo Cuenca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Macara
4
Draws
4
Deportivo Cuenca
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 60%
1–11–20–12–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Macara
LWWWW
Cuenca
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Macara host Deportivo Cuenca

July 22, 2026: Macara take on Deportivo Cuenca in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Macara host Deportivo Cuenca at Estadio Bellavista.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.