Macara 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Cuenca

12/13/2025

Liga Pro · Placement Group - 9Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara47%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.94

Macara

1.37

Deportivo Cuenca

0.94

Macara creates 46% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 131 away

1.24

creates per match

0.85

1.03

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Macara

1.24

Deportivo Cuenca

0.85

allows per match

Macara

1.03

Deportivo Cuenca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Macara or draw

74%

Macara or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

53%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

75%

Macara 2+ goals

40%

Macara 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

24%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

64%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Macara scores more

47%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

26%

Macara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff