Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Macara: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Macara

3/21/2026

Liga Pro · Round 6Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca44%

×Draw26%

Macara30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Deportivo Cuenca

1.44

Macara

1.13

Deportivo Cuenca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 118 away

1.55

creates per match

1.12

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.55

Macara

1.12

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.14

Macara

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

70%

Deportivo Cuenca or Macara

74%

Draw or Macara

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

21%

Macara wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

18%

Macara 1+ goals

68%

Macara 2+ goals

31%

Macara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

60%

Macara (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Macara away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.55 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Macara attack 1.12 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

44%

level

26%

Macara scores more

30%

Deportivo Cuenca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff