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Macara vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
10/7/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 9Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara48%
×Draw26%
Delfin SC26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.46
Delfin SC
0.99

Macara creates 47% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 133 away

creates per match

Macara
1.24
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Macara
1.03
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Macara or draw
74%
Macara or Delfin SC
74%
Draw or Delfin SC
52%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
24%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
77%
Macara 2+ goals
43%
Macara 3+ goals
18%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
63%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
26%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
65%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Macara scores more
48%
level
26%
Delfin SC scores more
26%

Macara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macara vs Delfin SC

Delfin SC beat Macara 2-0 in Liga Pro on October 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.