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Delfin SC vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
Preview
00:00
Macara
Macara
7/18/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 20Estadio Jocay
Big match
40%
Macara
model favours
31%30%40%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delfin SC31%
×Draw30%
Macara40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
0.98
Macara
1.15

Macara creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
0.85
Macara
1.26

allows per match

Delfin SC
1.03
Macara
1.10

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
60%
Delfin SC or Macara
70%
Draw or Macara
69%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
11%
Macara wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
62%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
26%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
8%
Macara 1+ goals
68%
Macara 2+ goals
32%
Macara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
44%
Macara (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Macara away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 0.85 + Macara defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Macara attack 1.26 + Delfin SC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Delfin SC scores more
31%
level
30%
Macara scores more
40%

Macara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • Delfin SC score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of Delfin SC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Delfin SC play Direct / counter-attacking, Macara Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Delfin SC
Direct / counter-attacking
Macara
Defensively solid
45%Possession49%
72%Pass accuracy75%
10.5Shots11.8
0.66xGBiggest gap1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Delfin SCMacara

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Delfin SC
2
Draws
3
Macara
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 0%
0–10–30–40–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
WLDLL
Macara
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Delfin SC face Macara (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Delfin SC hosting Macara. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Delfin SC host Macara at Estadio Jocay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.