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Macara vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
F. Callejo 45+3'
E. Delgado 43'
D. Villalba 50'
7/2/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 18Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Macara58%
×Draw26%
Chacaritas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.51
Chacaritas
0.66

Macara creates 129% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 97 away

creates per match

Macara
1.46
Chacaritas
0.68

allows per match

Macara
0.64
Chacaritas
1.56

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Macara or draw
84%
Macara or Chacaritas
74%
Draw or Chacaritas
42%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
30%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
78%
Macara 2+ goals
44%
Macara 3+ goals
19%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
48%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
14%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
78%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.56 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.46 + Chacaritas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Chacaritas attack 0.68 + Macara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Macara scores more
58%
level
26%
Chacaritas scores more
16%

Macara at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
43'
E. Delgado
45+3'
F. Callejo
50'
D. Villalba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Macara 2–1 Chacaritas

Macara beat Chacaritas 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 2, 2023.

Goals: E. Delgado (43'), F. Callejo (45+3'), D. Villalba (50').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.