Chacaritas 1–2 Macara: Result & Stats

Chacaritas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Macara

D. Bone 90+2'

D. Pazmiño 78'

L. Morales 34'

8/24/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 26Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chacaritas36%

×Draw28%

Macara36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChacaritasExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.17

Chacaritas

1.18

Macara

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 27 away

1.25

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Chacaritas

1.25

Macara

1.15

allows per match

Chacaritas

1.18

Macara

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw

64%

Chacaritas or Macara

72%

Draw or Macara

64%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+

15%

Macara wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals

69%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

33%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

12%

Macara 1+ goals

69%

Macara 2+ goals

33%

Macara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

50%

Macara (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

Macara away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + Macara defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Macara attack 1.15 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chacaritas scores more

36%

level

28%

Macara scores more

36%

Chacaritas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

L. Morales

69'

H. Sequeira

69'

G. Corozo

78'

D. Pazmiño

90+2'

D. Bone

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff