Macara 3–1 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Macara

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona SC

4/19/2026

Liga Pro · Round 9Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara37%

×Draw28%

Barcelona SC36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Macara

1.21

Barcelona SC

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 133 away

1.24

creates per match

1.34

1.03

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Macara

1.24

Barcelona SC

1.34

allows per match

Macara

1.03

Barcelona SC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Macara or draw

64%

Macara or Barcelona SC

72%

Draw or Barcelona SC

63%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

16%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

70%

Macara 2+ goals

34%

Macara 3+ goals

12%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

70%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

33%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

51%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Barcelona SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Barcelona SC attack 1.34 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Macara scores more

37%

level

28%

Barcelona SC scores more

36%

Macara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff