Barcelona SC 2–1 Macara: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Barcelona SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Macara

9/15/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Barcelona SC52%

×Draw25%

Macara23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.98

Barcelona SC

1.60

Macara

0.98

Barcelona SC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 117 away

1.87

creates per match

1.11

0.84

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.87

Macara

1.11

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.84

Macara

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

77%

Barcelona SC or Macara

75%

Draw or Macara

48%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

27%

Macara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

80%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

47%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

22%

Macara 1+ goals

62%

Macara 2+ goals

26%

Macara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

69%

Macara (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.84 · 134 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Macara attack 1.11 + Barcelona SC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

52%

level

25%

Macara scores more

23%

Barcelona SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff