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Maardu vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

Maardu
Maardu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
6/19/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 16Maardu linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maardu71%
×Draw15%
Kuressaare II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maardu
3.06
Kuressaare II
1.32

Maardu creates 132% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Maardu
3.56
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

Maardu
1.00
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

Maardu+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maardu ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Maardu or draw
86%
Maardu or Kuressaare II
85%
Draw or Kuressaare II
29%

Winning margin

Maardu wins by 2+
52%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Maardu 1+ goals
95%
Maardu 2+ goals
80%
Maardu 3+ goals
57%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
73%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
38%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maardu (draw refunded)
84%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maardu at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maardu attack 3.56 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 3.06

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Maardu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Maardu scores more
71%
level
15%
Kuressaare II scores more
14%

Maardu at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Maardu 1–0 Kuressaare II

Maardu beat Kuressaare II 1-0 in Esiliiga B on June 19, 2025.

The match was played at Maardu linnastaadion.