Kuressaare II 0–3 Maardu: Result & Stats

Kuressaare II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Maardu

3/15/2025

Esiliiga B · Round 3Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kuressaare II16%

×Draw17%

Maardu67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuressaare IIExpected goals in this matchMaardu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.64

Kuressaare II

1.24

Maardu

2.64

Maardu creates 113% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

1.31

creates per match

2.89

2.39

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Kuressaare II

1.31

Maardu

2.89

allows per match

Kuressaare II

2.39

Maardu

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Maardu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Maardu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw

33%

Kuressaare II or Maardu

83%

Draw or Maardu

84%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+

6%

Maardu wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals

71%

Kuressaare II 2+ goals

35%

Kuressaare II 3+ goals

13%

Maardu 1+ goals

93%

Maardu 2+ goals

74%

Maardu 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)

19%

Maardu (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Maardu away — creates 2.89, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Maardu defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Maardu attack 2.89 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kuressaare II scores more

16%

level

17%

Maardu scores more

67%

Maardu at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff