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M'saken vs EGS Gafsa — Cup 2019

M'saken
M'saken
FT
6 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
1/22/2022CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Municipal de M'saken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

M'saken63%
×Draw20%
EGS Gafsa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

M'saken
2.22
EGS Gafsa
1.06

M'saken creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

M'saken
2.57
EGS Gafsa
1.13

allows per match

M'saken
1.00
EGS Gafsa
1.88

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

M'saken or draw
83%
M'saken or EGS Gafsa
80%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
37%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+
40%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals
89%
M'saken 2+ goals
65%
M'saken 3+ goals
38%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
65%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
29%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)
79%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 2.57 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.22

EGS Gafsa attack 1.13 + M'saken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

M'saken scores more
63%
level
20%
EGS Gafsa scores more
17%

M'saken at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: M'saken vs EGS Gafsa

M'saken beat EGS Gafsa 6-3 in Cup on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de M'saken in M'saken.