EGS Gafsa 1–0 M'saken: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EGS Gafsa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

M'saken

S. Ben Salem 22'

12/25/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EGS Gafsa57%

×Draw27%

M'saken15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchM'saken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.59

EGS Gafsa

1.42

M'saken

0.59

EGS Gafsa creates 141% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

1.63

creates per match

0.63

0.55

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.63

M'saken

0.63

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

0.55

M'saken

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

M'saken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

85%

EGS Gafsa or M'saken

73%

Draw or M'saken

43%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

29%

M'saken wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

76%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

41%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

17%

M'saken 1+ goals

45%

M'saken 2+ goals

12%

M'saken 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

79%

M'saken (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

M'saken attack 0.63 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

57%

level

27%

M'saken scores more

15%

EGS Gafsa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

S. Ben Salem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff